Weekend Review
Positions close well despite market volatility. News headlines over weekend, see how market reacts next week.
POSITIONS
Volatile end to the week but happy with how everything closed.
We’ve got war breaking out over the weekend so will be interesting to see what next week brings.
We’ve had a lot of bad news over the last few weeks and despite this, the markets have refused to break lower and there’s been a few leading groups of stocks that have acted well. If they can shake this off as well then that would be a huge tell.
Markets hate uncertainty, could this have been what the market has been anticipating?! Remember the market is forward looking and in the past, war has typically been bullish for equities and quite often, the bottom of corrections hasn’t been far off the breakout of war.
That said, as always no predictions. Just going to focus on what is in front of me and react accordingly.
February stats below. Shared results every month for 19 months now, 100% transparency.
February stats:
-15% realised gains.
-1% unrealised gains
Puts me at:
-10% realised YTD.
+12% unrealised YTD.
Tough action again this month.
What’s made it hard is that there has been some strength in select groups but even if you’ve been focused on those your entries have had to be spot on.
What has been a bit harder for me as well is that I like to get positioned at potential market turns , after the market has been consolidating or correcting as this better suits my style of getting positioned and then sitting for extended moves. Especially as I like to focus on leaders which often move before the market looks good.
If you’re more of a shorter term swing term swing trader then it has likely been easier to buy and sell short term strength or just sit out all together.
As you can see this month, I’m not that fussed about trimming in to strength and making my equity curve look nicer and more focused on catching the outlier moves with size that move the needle on my account. This means I tend to have bigger and longer drawdowns in my realised gains equity curve. Doesn’t help that I’ve traded more than I should have either.
That said, I do have some decent unrealised gains (for now), particularly in SNDK TER. I’ve managed to get some potential good spots in some strong stuff this month which could lead the market higher if it can find it’s footing.
Let’s see what fun March brings!!
YTD realised equity curve below
POSITIONS REVIEW
Had somebody ask if I can share portfolio with sizes which I’m happy to do each weekend.
I have a spread betting account, which I believe is similar to options as rather than owning the shares outright you ‘bet’ on the direction the stock will go ( higher margin fees in the U.K but no taxes). This is why the size is expressed as ‘Notional Value’.
VIAV
Big strength last couple of days and has managed to hold 5ema. Could argue short term extended so any sideways whilst 20ema/50MA catch up would be fine.
CCJ
Building a pivot above 10WMA and if remains constructive would be one to watch back through 10/20ema
BE
Got stopped on add from Thursday and bought back off the 20ema. Always prefer the pullbacks to 20ema as less extended. Likely to get stopped on add but see if it can hold the bigger picture pattern.
SNDK
Another likely to have my add stopped but overall if it can hold above 20ema, which it hasn’t tested since last year, then would still look constructive.
